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| The top10 mobile predictions |
May 6, 2002 |
Wonder where the wireless world is headed? Deloitte Consulting does—and here are their m-predictions, along with Backbone’s take.
1) Prediction: Business mobile take-up will accelerate.
The verdict: Costs could be a barrier, as companies are cautious about spending. Strategies also need to be honed. “There are very few businesses that aren’t asking the right questions,” said Wade Oosterman, an executive vice-president at Telus Mobility. “There are fewer businesses that have come up with their answers.”
2) Prediction: Companies will learn to do more with less, aided by mobile projects.
The verdict: The sell-side needs to push harder—wireless investments still command a paltry portion of business telecom budgets, according to Lawrence Surtees, senior telecom analyst at IDC Canada. “Far from being bad news, long term it’s one heck of an opportunity.”
3) Prediction: New-generation networks are here, and applications and services will win the day.
The verdict: Don’t hold your breath. 3G is now in Japan, while versions of 2.5G and 3G are rolling out across Europe, Asia and North America. In Canada, the first phase of 3G has been introduced but the full experience won’t be available for years.
4) Prediction: UMTS (a 3G transmission standard) won’t be the universal transport—there will be a series of networks, and gaps will be filled.
The verdict: Too optimistic. As an IDC Canada report notes, more co-operation among regulatory agencies and providers “is needed to accelerate the adoption of common global standards for 3G networks.” In addition, other standards—such as Bluetooth—began with heaps of promise but haven’t lived up to the hype.
5) Prediction: Faster, cheaper location services will be driven by e911 legislation in the U.S. (which focuses on using technology to pinpoint emergency callers using cellphones).
The verdict: Some location-based services are already here, and they will definitely increase. Stephen Verhoeff, CEO of Calgarybased CSI Wireless, said the e911 legislation has “brought a lot of focus on providing location services to cellular telephones.” Related technologies include telematics, such as wirelesslyenabled cars that could link drivers with their company’s intranet or find the nearest Italian restaurant.
6) Prediction: The public sector leaps forward and uses mobile projects to communicate with citizens and reduce costs.
The verdict: Governments aren’t renowned for being on the cutting edge, and are notorious for going over-budget on grand projects. Mobile initiatives might save some costs but end up boosting others.
7) Prediction: Convergence—multi-function devices will begin to sprout.
The verdict: No argument. Feature-packed offerings are already here—just check out Research In Motion’s Blackberry 5810, a handheld that combines a phone with wireless e-mail, short message service, a browser and an organizer.
8) Prediction: After Sept. 11, people must be prepared to swap privacy for security.
The verdict: Operators will have to tread carefully when gathering personal data, as users will only put up with so much intrusion. And expect more wireless hacking stories to emerge.
9) Prediction: Smaller operators will disappear.
The verdict: Absolutely. The sheer costs of deploying 3G networks and providing services mean only the biggest will survive. Expect more alliances between U.S. providers and Canada’s heavy hitters.
10) Prediction: High-value content will be king.
The verdict: Countless Web companies said the same thing during the Internet craze and nearly all of them are dead. Usefulness will be key, and that’s why location-based services will continue to grow.
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