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Don‘t let the pessimists get you down January 6, 2002 
By Peter Wolchak

HAPPY NEW YEAR, AND WELCOME TO THE TRADITIONAL SEASON OF REFLECTION. AND THERE IS A LOT OF reflecting going on.

These days, it would be easy to fall into a gloomy state of mind. Many pundits are propagating a cynical outlook, full of falling economic activity, job losses and an approach to spending that pushes caution to the point of inertia.

And of course, these analysts are correct, but only up to a point. Many good people have lost their jobs and economic activity has dropped. But the consensus among economists is that this recession will be both shallow and short-lived, and that the economy will bounce back with vigour.

“This is not the doom-and-gloom situation that some people think it is,” said Don McCartney, the director of e-risk strategy at KPMG LLP in Toronto.

As proof, McCartney pointed to North American ecommerce activity, which faltered after the terrorist attacks last year but rebounded quickly.

“There is no doubt that after Sept. 11 there was an initial slowdown, not just in transactions but also a real decrease in average transaction values,” he said. “But that was a temporary slowdown, and by late September the levels weren’t all that bad. And [by October] we were seeing normal levels and some that were better than October of [1999].”

And there’s more good news: those companies that have invested in e-business systems are better-equipped to ride out economic storms than their traditional competitors.

On the business-to-consumer side, online retail sales will outpace many bricks-and-mortar numbers. “During an economic downturn, a lot of people who may have bought big-ticket items—expensive jewellery, fur coats, golf clubs, stereos—are now out of work or facing cutbacks and are interested in smaller-ticket items, like CDs, DVDs, clock radios,” McCartney said. “And those things are all more characteristic of online shopping.”

We will therefore see some real e-business success stories, as companies already benefiting from the lower overhead inherent in e-commerce operations cash in on this new sales impetus.

Business-to-business projects, on the other hand, are typically not affected by economic fluctuations, as they have lengthy implementation cycles with budgets that were approved long before this current downturn began. That means companies that were smart enough to invest in e-business during the good times will see those systems come online during and after this downturn, and the business benefits of customer relationship management, enterprise planning, business exchanges and other systems will help them bury the competition.

So if your company has not yet resolved to invest in ebusiness, this New Year is a good time to start.

And now a word about us: In addition to observing a new year, we at Backbone are also celebrating our first year in print. This edition marks Backbone’s seventh issue, and we couldn’t be happier with what we’ve accomplished.

In the last year, our content has helped you excel at ebusiness. And if you haven’t yet ventured along this path, we’ve hopefully encouraged you to get off the fence and jump in with the rest of us.

These days, if you’re not into e-business then you’re not really into business.

The New Economy is here to stay, and so are we. The staff at Backbone is looking forward to sharing the successes of 2002 with you.
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