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| Chinese Event Showcases Your Car Decades From Now |
March 16, 2005 |
By Michael Bettencourt
AUTOMOTIVE DELEGATES FROM MORE THAN 45 COUNTRIES GATHER TO ADDRESS THE QUESTION, “WHAT HAPPENS WHEN ALL THE GAS RUNS OUT?”
When Michelin’s corporate vice-president Patrick Oliva looked up from the podium at the 1,000-plus audience streaming into the 600-person lecture hall at Shanghai’s Tongji University this past October, his brow furrowed and he glanced at his watch.
As the “daddy” of the entire Michelin Challenge Bibendum event — the tire maker’s regular international gathering of futuristic enviro-friendly vehicles from most of the auto industry’s major players — Oliva knew this year’s event could have particularly farreaching consequences.
Not only was his boss and CEO Edouard Michelin waiting to officially open the event, but he knew tardiness was a major form of disrespect in Chinese business culture. And neither Oliva nor any of the other 2,000 attendees from more than 45 countries wanted to upset any government official from the economic powerhouse that is China.
China is now creating the modern transportation infrastructure that the U.S. did more than 50 years ago to power its post-war economic explosion. In China there is still no nationwide network of fuel stations, as bicycles continue to be the main form of transportation in smaller cities. However, the country spent US$43 billion to build roads in 2003, according to China’s Ministry of Communications, and it plans to spend many billions more in the next few years on transportation infrastructure. If even a small percentage of China’s infrastructure plans include measures that foster advanced technologies like electric- or hydrogen-powered cars, the theory goes, it could speed the availability of these technologies in more developed parts of the world.
TECH FOR TOMORROW
So there was an excited buzz around the Michelin event.
Opportunity was in the air; opportunity for technical progress and for profit. Participants have long known oil reserves will run out, plus there are increasing geopolitical and environmental pressures to promote the popular notion of sustainable mobility. Hybrid gas-electric vehicles have already hit North American, European and Japanese markets, but there’s general international agreement that these vehicles are merely a bridge technology, one step toward weaning the industrialized world off petroleum.
The real eye-openers lie in what’s further down the road, 20 or even 30 years into the future. No one yet is sure which or how many of the following technologies will actually make it out of the laboratories and onto the road, not to mention when, but Michelin and a host of other companies provided a sneak peek at what could be in your garage by 2030.
Clean cars: Michelin showed off its Hy-Light concept, designed to showcase what a clean car could look like 25 years from now. It’s a four-passenger electric vehicle similar in shape to the gas-electric Toyota Prius hybrid, but the electricity that moves its front wheels is generated by a fuel cell more advanced than even the latest lithium ion batteries.
The cell runs on compressed gaseous hydrogen and oxygen, a mixture complex enough to mean that even in the near future it’s unlikely the average corner station will be able to supply fuel for this car.
New power: What’s more likely to appear in some form before then is the Hy-Light’s unique power plant placement.
Instead of a big, bulky engine under the hood, this integrates an electric motor into each front wheel, eliminating the need for a gearbox, clutch and transmission shaft. The Hy-Light weighs a scant 850kg, helping its modest power output attain very mainstream performance figures (0 to 100km/h in 12 seconds, top speed 130km/h), with a range of about 400km at steady speeds.
In addition to the glitzy show, the Hy-Light and more than 70 other advanced vehicles actually competed for environmental bragging rights. This part of the event was based at the new Shanghai International Circuit inaugurated by a Formula One race just three weeks beforehand. The competition’s goal was to scientifically compare various technologies by different automakers, research institutions and energy companies.
Part of the test involved a rally that took participants over an 88km route around Shanghai. The city has already been dubbed the Chinese Motor City for all the auto companies headquartered there, but it is also a financial capital. (The city also loves its electronics; it houses a four-storey, electronics-only mall.)
The rally winners were Kunihiko Takemoto and Wang Hui, driving a Toyota Prius.
Advanced tires: When asked specifically what the future holds for tires, CEO Edouard Michelin painted an interesting picture. “In the next 10 to 15
years, they will be much more fuel efficient, they will have lots of technology that will keep you going in case of a flat, and there will be electronics in tires that monitor pressure,” he said. “One day, they’ll even be able to tell you ‘The road is slippery.’”
Solar driven: There was one solar-powered entry at the event, which attracted cameras and attention everywhere it went. Entered by the Australian Aurora Vehicle Association, the Aurora 101 was notable, but given its single-seat capacity, low height and dislike for rainy days or cold weather, it is unlikely to see widespread use in the foreseeable future.
There may very well be a future for solar panels on mainstream vehicles, but they won’t be driving the cars. Panels could provide trickle power to run accessories. This technology has appeared on some ultra-luxury sedans to power fans which keep the interior air moving while the car is parked in the hot sun. Fuel cell, on a skateboard: Of all the major automakers, GM has sparked the most futuristic thinking by publicly sharing its radical ideas on what we may be driving 30 years into the future.
One of the fuel cell vehicles it presented in Shanghai was called the Hy-Wire: a four-door that runs on a fuel cell power plant integrated into a six-inch thick skateboardlike chassis in the floor of the vehicle.
The car eschews 20th century technology like mechanical connections for steering, braking and acceleration inputs in favour of purely electronic by-wire controls.
The skateboard chassis and electronic controls could very well have a major impact on our roads in 2030 and beyond.
The underfloor chassis could allow for different bodies to be attached to the car, so a young buyer who wants a convertible can later switch to a more practical sedan by visiting a local dealer, and then perhaps a larger minivan body as needed. The power train itself would produce no emissions save water, and could be designed for a lifespan of 20 years or so.
GM says by-wire controls also mean the interior of the car can be much different from what we’re driving now. Without a physical link between the steering and front wheels, the steering wheel can be placed anywhere in the car. It doesn’t even have to be a wheel at all: a joystick-like controller could theoretically replace the steering wheel, accelerator and brake pedals altogether. That would be perfect for those raised on video games; not so good for driving enthusiasts who like lots of involvement behind the wheel.
Home-grown cells: The high number of fuel-cell powered vehicles at the event bodes well for flag-waving Canadians, as Burnaby, B.C.-based Ballard Power Systems is the unquestioned technical leader in this area. Ballard supplies fuel cells to six of the 10 largest auto producers, including Honda, whose FCX became the first fuel-cell vehicle certified for commercial and government use. John Harris, director of Ballard Asia, said the company will have more fuelcell vehicles on the road this year than all competitors combined. But the outlook is bleak for mainstream cells for another 20 to 30 years, thanks to their high cost, size, lack of hydrogen infrastructure and dislike of low temperatures. “Once it’s running, minus 30 degrees is not a problem,” Harris said. “The issue is start up.”
Pushing safety: Recent advances in safety technology are more likely to be seen in the marketplace. Loyola de Palacio, vicepresident of the European Commission for Energy and Transport, noted Europe is moving toward active safety technologies that help avoid collisions. “The (upcoming) Galileo system that’s proposed to include navigation assistance to drivers is more accurate than GPS (global positioning systems) and can offer vision assistance and collision avoidance capability.”
Michelin’s Oliva said in many instances, the technology is ahead of the political or corporate will for it. “We are in a very interesting point in time where evolution will only be possible, or speeded up, if there is a joint collaboration between industry and government,” he said. “The technology is mature in many respects, but for these technologies to be mass produced, it’s clear that industries have to invest, and governments have to send some clear signals of where they want to go.” In other words, no one’s really sure yet when these systems will be available, but the scientists are working hard, and now it’s time for politicians and company bean counters to catch up.
Gas still king: Gasoline and diesel engines are still being developed and improved in all areas — environmental, cost and capabilities — so the internal combustion engine will likely remain the dominant transportation power source for the next 10 to 20 years. Hybrid vehicles, both gas-electric and diesel-electric, should increase in popularity during that time, but only if they can show measurable fuel economy benefits to consumers.
Fuel cells are the current holy grail that most companies are working toward long term, but with the major challenges they have to overcome, 30 years might be an optimistic figure. Regardless, we know future cars will be cleaner, safer, more adaptable to their owners and will come with an increasing variety of technologies under the hood, at the wheels or underfoot.
Web challenge
Challenge Bibendum http://www.challengebibendum.com
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