Video calling will dominate within seven years
And Skype will rule the market
By Jim Harris
November 20, 2011
November 20, 2011
One of my Twitter mentors is based in B.C. Blair Semenoff’s Twitter handle is @flipbooks, he’s the second most-followed tweeter in Vancouver and he’s been re-tweeted more than a million times. So he’s a player, and I take his opinion seriously. For our coaching sessions, he insists on using Skype. Why? Because you can either share video or share your computer screen.
In our sessions, we share my screen, so Semenoff can show me how he uses various programs, and I can see everything he is doing in our remote training session. The kicker is—of course—that it’s all free.
For Skype, I can buy an HD camera like the Logtitech HD Pro Webcam C910 for $C119 or Creative’s Live! Cam inPerson HD Webcam for US$149.99. The Creative unit processes video on board, to relieve the CPU of graphics-intensive work. With either unit, presto: I have professional quality video conferencing for free. (It helps that my office has the fastest bandwidth Bell offers for small and medium businesses.)
Check your background
Using Skype for business—as opposed to personal—calls has got me thinking about the background that clients, business partners or suppliers see on video calls. So I’m experimenting with putting a white screen behind my desk and a digital projector beside my monitor. I could project an image as the background for each call. For one client I might choose mahogany paneling, for another a library, the Eiffel Tower or a Picasso. Why not have some fun?
A staggering 42 per cent of the 207 billion minutes of calls Skype users made in 2010 were video calls, according to Skype. And it’s releasing video chat services for mobiles and televisions, leading consulting firm Telegeography to predict that, by 2015, Skype users will make 30 billion video calls.
I’ve experienced better videoconferencing, such as the Cisco TelePresence product, but the systems cost thousands of dollars. That naturally limits their uptake. Skype has democratized video conferencing, and I see it becoming core to conducting business.
Plain old phones
And how does this challenge traditional telephone services? Only 15 years ago, telcos made 70 per cent of their profit from long-distance charges; today that can be a free service. Soon, video calls will surpass phone calls as the dominant form of communication. And Skype is leading the way.
Skype is also profoundly changing voice communication. In 2010, it facilitated 20 per cent of all international long-distance minutes, making it the largest international telco worldwide. Assuming an average cost of 22 cents a minute for the traditional carriers, Skype’s 102 billion minutes in 2010 means the company provided $22.4 billion of value—at no charge—to its international callers.
No wonder Skype’s traffic is growing exponentially, while the international long-distance market remains basically flat. I first experienced Voice Over Internet Protocol in Nepal in 1999. I made a Net-to-Phone call to North America for 10 rupees a minute, while the country’s telco rate was R300 per minute. In that instant, I knew long distance would move to free within a few years. I made the prediction in my second book, The Learning Paradox, which of course has come true.
So I am confident predicting that video calling will be the dominant form of communication within seven years, and it won’t be the traditional telcos or Cisco that will dominate the new reality.
Jim Harris is the author of Blindsided, a #1 international bestseller published in 80 countries worldwide. He speaks at 40 conferences a year around the world. You can reach him through LinkedIn or through www.jimharris.com.
Also watch:
Jim Harris on Tech Innovations at Backbone's 10th Anniversary - April 2011
Also read:
Unified Communications blog
Skype's Take on the Changing Workplace
The best and worst of times - a decade in tech
In our sessions, we share my screen, so Semenoff can show me how he uses various programs, and I can see everything he is doing in our remote training session. The kicker is—of course—that it’s all free.
For Skype, I can buy an HD camera like the Logtitech HD Pro Webcam C910 for $C119 or Creative’s Live! Cam inPerson HD Webcam for US$149.99. The Creative unit processes video on board, to relieve the CPU of graphics-intensive work. With either unit, presto: I have professional quality video conferencing for free. (It helps that my office has the fastest bandwidth Bell offers for small and medium businesses.)
Check your background
Using Skype for business—as opposed to personal—calls has got me thinking about the background that clients, business partners or suppliers see on video calls. So I’m experimenting with putting a white screen behind my desk and a digital projector beside my monitor. I could project an image as the background for each call. For one client I might choose mahogany paneling, for another a library, the Eiffel Tower or a Picasso. Why not have some fun?
A staggering 42 per cent of the 207 billion minutes of calls Skype users made in 2010 were video calls, according to Skype. And it’s releasing video chat services for mobiles and televisions, leading consulting firm Telegeography to predict that, by 2015, Skype users will make 30 billion video calls.
I’ve experienced better videoconferencing, such as the Cisco TelePresence product, but the systems cost thousands of dollars. That naturally limits their uptake. Skype has democratized video conferencing, and I see it becoming core to conducting business.
Plain old phones
And how does this challenge traditional telephone services? Only 15 years ago, telcos made 70 per cent of their profit from long-distance charges; today that can be a free service. Soon, video calls will surpass phone calls as the dominant form of communication. And Skype is leading the way.
Skype is also profoundly changing voice communication. In 2010, it facilitated 20 per cent of all international long-distance minutes, making it the largest international telco worldwide. Assuming an average cost of 22 cents a minute for the traditional carriers, Skype’s 102 billion minutes in 2010 means the company provided $22.4 billion of value—at no charge—to its international callers.
No wonder Skype’s traffic is growing exponentially, while the international long-distance market remains basically flat. I first experienced Voice Over Internet Protocol in Nepal in 1999. I made a Net-to-Phone call to North America for 10 rupees a minute, while the country’s telco rate was R300 per minute. In that instant, I knew long distance would move to free within a few years. I made the prediction in my second book, The Learning Paradox, which of course has come true.
So I am confident predicting that video calling will be the dominant form of communication within seven years, and it won’t be the traditional telcos or Cisco that will dominate the new reality.
Also watch:
Jim Harris on Tech Innovations at Backbone's 10th Anniversary - April 2011
Also read:
Unified Communications blog
Skype's Take on the Changing Workplace
The best and worst of times - a decade in tech
